Huckaboom and Hillabust
The surprising falls and unexpected gains ahead of Iowa's caucuses
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By Howard Fineman
MSNBC
updated 3:17 p.m. ET, Wed., Dec. 12, 2007
 | Howard Fineman
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WASHINGTON - Sen.
Hillary Clinton’s campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner.
On the Republican side, meanwhile, the race is shaping up in an even more unexpected way: a contest between two former Northern moderates (Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney) for the right to take on a Southern Baptist preacher, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who believes in the inerrancy of Scripture but not in Darwinian evolution.
This week is the last chance the candidates will gather en masse to confront each other, and in a neutral setting. They are wending their way through ice storms to Iowa, where the Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television are hosting back-to-back debates.
Here’s where things stand for the major candidates with the most to gain and lose in the debates, in Iowa, and in the early going. Take a good look at the rest of the field. They won’t be around for long.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA
National polls still give Hillary a double-digit lead. Those polls mean nothing. What matters now is not the number but the direction, and Obama is movin’ on up at a rapid pace. Little pieces of evidence matter. In Manchester, N.H., the other day, Democratic Gov. John Lynch showed up at the Obama-Oprah rally, ostensibly to introduce Oprah, but, really to cover his bets politically. The newest polls in the state show why: Obama is tied with Hillary, and people are literally exchanging her lawn signs for his. If he can win Iowa – and it remains a big if – Hillary’s campaign could collapse. New Hampshire would almost surely go his way. The Culinary Workers in Nevada might well endorse him, as could influential South Carolina Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn. Black Democrats have complained for years that Iowa and New Hampshire are “too white.” But the irony is, South Carolina African-Americans I talked to last weekend want to see if Obama can win white votes before they commit to him. There is no better way of doing that than in Iowa and New Hampshire. And don’t forget something else: he has 150,000 online contributors. He can raise cash fast.
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON
If she is going to argue that Obama is unelectable in the fall – if she is going to argue that the Democrats cannot afford to take the risk on a Southside Chicago street organizer – she had better get to it in the debate this week. But it is a tricky proposition. In a way, Hillary is trapped by her own do-it-yourself feminist ethos. She should have surrogates out there pounding away at Obama. I haven’t seen them. And her husband, evidently, won’t do it. Why should Bill Clinton tarnish his image as “America’s first black president” by attacking the man who might be the real deal? His circle is beginning to complain, loudly, about how Hillary is running her campaign. That kind of circular firing squad chatter is the first sign of a campaign headed into oblivion.
JOHN EDWARDS
Quite simply, this Iowa debate (and Iowa itself) is his first and last chance. He has placed all his money and bets for years on Iowa, where he is practically a local at this point. He absolutely HAS to win to get the media attention he needs to leverage his effort here into national momentum. He has the best, most cogent and inspiring stump speech, and a good, loyal organization. He could get pummeled by media dynamics. There will be exit polls on caucus night, but they will not be an accurate reflection of the final tallies of caucus delegates – the legally meaningful number – until later. Also, he is strongest in the small western towns, whose disproportionate influence in the delegate tallies (don’t ask) won’t show up in the exits. In other words, he could win but not get credit for it by the time the winners are declared.
